138k views
5 votes
Organisms are present in batas water decharged from a ship according to a Poisson process with a concentration of 10 arganiama/n (the article "Counting at Lew Concentrations: The Statistical challenges of verifying salast Water Discharge Standards" considers

using the Polacon process for this purpose).
(a) What is the probability that one cubic meter of discharge contains at least 5 organisms?

User KiwiJuicer
by
8.5k points

1 Answer

3 votes

Final answer:

To calculate the probability that one cubic meter of discharge contains at least 5 organisms in a Poisson process with 10 organisms per cubic meter, we use a complementary probability approach with the Poisson distribution formula.

Step-by-step explanation:

The question asks for the probability that one cubic meter of discharge contains at least 5 organisms when organisms are present in ballast water discharged from a ship according to a Poisson process with a concentration of 10 organisms per cubic meter (org/m3). To find this, we apply the Poisson distribution formula:

P(X ≥ k) = 1 - ∑i=0k-1 (e-λ λi / i!)

Where:
λ (lambda) is the mean number of occurrences in a given interval (in our case, λ=10 org/m3),
i is the number of occurrences (≥ 5 in our case),
e is the base of the natural logarithm (≈ 2.71828).

To calculate the probability of at least 5 organisms, we need the sum of the probabilities of having 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 organisms and subtract that sum from 1. This complementary probability approach gives us the chance of having 5 or more organisms. We can compute this using a scientific calculator or statistical software that supports the Poisson distribution.

User Aleksei Matiushkin
by
8.3k points