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We have observed birds on airport runways and found on average, 6 birds arrive if there are no delays in landings during peak hours. Assume no delays for the next few questions.

a) What is the probability, as you observe for an hour, that at least 6 birds arrive?

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Final answer:

The student's question about the probability of observing at least 6 birds on an airport runway during peak hours with no delays is a problem that can be solved using the Poisson distribution. To find the probability of at least 6 birds, the cumulative probability of observing fewer than 6 is calculated and then subtracted from 1.

Step-by-step explanation:

The question asks about the probability of observing at least 6 birds on an airport runway during peak hours, assuming there are no flight delays. This situation can be modeled by a Poisson distribution, where the average number of birds observed in a given time period (e.g., during one hour) is known. The average rate (λ) is given as 6 birds per hour.

To find the probability of observing at least 6 birds, we can use the Poisson distribution formula:

The probability mass function (PMF) of a Poisson distribution for k events is given by:
P(X = k) = (λ^k * e^-λ) / k!

However, to find the probability of observing at least 6 birds (k ≥ 6), we need to calculate the sum of probabilities of observing 6, 7, 8, ... and so on, up to infinity. A more practical approach is to calculate the cumulative distribution up to 5 and subtract it from 1:

P(X ≥ 6) = 1 - P(X < 6)

P(X < 6) is the cumulative probability of observing fewer than 6 birds, which can be calculated by summing the probabilities from k = 0 to k = 5 using the PMF of the Poisson distribution. Therefore, the calculation would involve summing the PMFs for k = 0 to k = 5 and subtracting this sum from 1.

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