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You want to use generalised Brownian Motion to simulate stock prices. The current price (today) of a stock is S 135, and you want to model tomorrow's stock price. The daily

growth rate and the daily volatility for a 5tock are estimated to be .03 and .04, respectively You use these parameters and sample from a Normal distribution which yielded
0.031466. What is the simulated value of the stock price tomorrow?
(a)139.32
(b)127.44
(c)136.03
(d)122.71
(e)154.49

User VKolev
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1 Answer

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Final answer:

The simulated value of the stock price for tomorrow using generalized Brownian Motion, with given parameters, is approximately $139.28, which is closest to the option (a) $139.32.

Step-by-step explanation:

To simulate the stock price for tomorrow using generalized Brownian Motion, we use the formula for Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM):

S(t) = S(0) * exp((μ - σ²/2) * t + σ * Z * sqrt(t))

Where:

  • S(0) = current stock price = $135
  • μ = daily growth rate = 0.03
  • σ = daily volatility = 0.04
  • t = time period = 1 day
  • Z = random sample from a normal distribution = 0.031466

Plugging in the values, we get:

S(1) = $135 * exp((0.03 - 0.04²/2) * 1 + 0.04 * 0.031466 * sqrt(1))

First, we calculate (0.03 - (0.04² / 2)):

0.03 - (0.04² / 2) = 0.03 - 0.0008 = 0.0292

Now we can substitute this value back into the equation:

S(1) = $135 * exp(0.0292 + 0.04 * 0.031466)

Expanding the exponential part:

exp(0.0292 + 0.04 * 0.031466) = exp(0.03045864)

The final calculation of tomorrow's stock price is:

S(1) = $135 * exp(0.03045864) ≈ $135 * 1.030958103 = $139.28

Therefore, the simulated value of the stock price for tomorrow is approximately $139.28, which is closest to the option (a) $139.32.

User Soamazing
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