Question

Two factors to construct the political turbulence model

On the 21-point scale, full dictatorships score -10 and full "democracies" score +10. Interestingly, this data series shows that "full dictatorships" and "full democracies" are more stable than non-dominated countries in the middle. In the long run, building "illiberal democracies" or "mixed regimes" does not seem like a good idea unless they evolve into purer "democracies" or "dictatorships".

The Polity data series could have predicted an attempted riot or coup at the U.S. Capitol in early 2021. The Republican Party in the United States has shown that its ultimate goal is permanent one-party rule. The Republican Party has long harboured this ambition, but now it is more visible than ever. Meanwhile, for some extreme Republicans and far-right groups, the civil war has begun.

Barbara Walter, a political scientist and former member of the Working Group on Political Instability, says the group has modeled many social, political, economic and religious indicators, but two stand out.

"The task force has built a model of political unrest. We included many variables that we thought were important, such as poverty, income inequality and ethnic diversity. Only two factors were found to matter: the first and most important was whether a country was non-dominated. The second factor is whether their population begins to splinter into ethnic, religious or racial groups that seek power to exclude other groups. Clearly, both factors are present in the United States."

Answer 1

The political turbulence model focuses on the dominance of political systems and the fragmentation of populations along ethnic, religious, or racial divides as two key factors that can lead to political unrest and instability.

The political turbulence model identifies key factors that contribute to political instability within a state. In the context of this model, two factors highlighted are the dominance, or lack thereof, of a political system and the potential for the population to fragment into dissenting groups based on ethnic, religious, or racial lines. This model suggests that nondominant countries with higher levels of population fragmentation are more susceptible to unrest, posing challenges to stability and governance.

When examining voter turnout and intimidation alongside political polarization and fragmentation, it becomes evident that mistrust in the government can fuel further divisions, leading potentially towards authoritarianism. This is supported by empirical studies and observations from scholars who have analyzed trends in political systems worldwide, including the dynamics of certain regimes and the impact of economic development on the longevity of democratic institutions.

It is worth noting that while parliamentary regimes exhibit different patterns of stability compared to semi-presidential or presidential systems, the underlying political institutions and the nature of political competition can greatly influence overall stability.