Final answer:
Predictions of China's 8 to 10 percent average GNP growth in the coming years are contingent on various economic factors, including productivity, technological progress, and international trade relations, despite the country's slow population growth. Historical precedents in Asia show that high growth rates are achievable but can be affected by multiple challenges.
Step-by-step explanation:
Most analysts predict that China would see an 8 to 10 percent average GNP growth in the next 10 to 15 years, a forecast which is primarily dependent on various economic factors within China. One significant element is China's population dynamics, which have shifted from a high rate of population growth in the early 1970s to a much lower growth rate in the 21st century, oscillating around 1%. While China's vast population size contributes to the overall magnitude of its economy, the low rate of population growth indicates that economic expansion may be attributed to factors like increased productivity, technological advancements, and trade.
Considering historical precedents, such as Japan and certain East Asian economies in the latter half of the twentieth century, periods of high economic growth are possible and have been achieved through a combination of domestic policies and international trade relations. For China, its significant role in global trade, as seen by the 294% growth in exports to the United States over the past decade, positions it as a critical player in the international economy. Nonetheless, future growth could be limited by internal challenges, including income inequality and environmental concerns.
Moreover, according to The Conference Board's Global Economic Outlook updated in November 2014, China's growth rate was projected to be about 5.5% between 2015 and 2019, which is lower than the 8 to 10 percent average GNP growth anticipated. This divergence suggests that economic forecasts are subject to change and can be influenced by a variety of economic policies and external factors.