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A developing country with a total fertility rate (TFR) of 4 and a net migration rate of -3.5 is likely to experience

A. Population growth

B. Population decline

C. Stable population

D. Constant migration

1 Answer

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Final answer:

A developing country with a high total fertility rate (TFR) of 4, despite experiencing negative net migration, is likely to experience population growth as the birth rate is predicted to exceed the combined rates of death and emigration.

Step-by-step explanation:

The question revolves around the demographic dynamics of a developing country with a total fertility rate (TFR) of 4 and a net migration rate of -3.5. To determine whether this country is likely to experience population growth, decline, or stability, we need to consider the implications of these rates. A TFR of 4 indicates that on average each woman is giving birth to 4 children, which is significantly above the replacement level of 2.1. This would generally suggest a growing population. However, the country also has a negative net migration rate, meaning more people are leaving than entering.

From the demographic transition model (DTM), we understand that countries may experience different stages of population growth. A country with a high fertility rate might still be in an earlier stage of the DTM, where birth rates exceed death rates, leading to a larger population. Even though the migration rate is negative, which in isolation could lead to a decrease in population size, the high TFR suggests that the birth rate likely outweighs the death rate plus the rate of emigration, promoting population growth.