Final answer:
The bullwhip measure for Super Toy Mart is 1.2. If there had been a perfect demand forecast with even monthly ordering, the bullwhip measure would theoretically be 1, signifying no amplification, though this is a theoretical ideal rather than a practical expectation.
Step-by-step explanation:
The bullwhip effect measure is used to quantify the extent of demand variability amplification in the supply chain. It can be calculated by dividing the order variance by the demand variance. In the case of Super Toy Mart, the bullwhip measure can be calculated as follows:
Order Variance / Demand Variance = 12,000 units / 10,000 units = 1.2
Therefore, the bullwhip measure for Super Toy Mart is 1.2.
Now, if Super Toy Mart had made a perfect forecast of demand and decided to order 1/12 of that demand each month, there would be no variance in demand as the orders would exactly match the forecasted demand. Hence, the bullwhip measure would have been:
Order Variance / Demand Variance = 0 units / 0 units =
Undefined
(or practically, the bullwhip measure would be 1, since there's no amplification if perfect forecasting is assumed)
However, it's not possible to achieve a zero variance in a practical scenario, implying a bullwhip measure of exactly 1 is theoretical and serves to show how perfect forecasting would eliminate variability between orders and demand.