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Suppose that an examination consists of six true and false questions, and assume that a student has no knowledge of the subject matter. The probability that the student will guess the correct answer to the first question is 30%. Likewise, the probability of guessing each of the remaining questions is also 30%. a) what is the probability of getting more than four correct answers? b) what is the probability of getting at least two correct answers? c) what is the probability of getting at most three correct answers? d) what is the probability of getting less than five correct answers?

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Let's tackle this probability problem step by step. Given that the probability of guessing correctly on any question is 30% (or 0.3), we can use the binomial probability formula to calculate the probabilities for each part of the problem. The binomial probability formula is:

[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} \cdot p^k \cdot (1-p)^{n-k} ]

where:

( P(X = k) ) is the probability of getting exactly ( k ) correct answers,

( \binom{n}{k} ) is the binomial coefficient, which represents the number of ways to choose ( k ) successes out of ( n ) trials,

( n ) is the number of trials (in our case, 6 questions),

( k ) is the number of successful outcomes (correct answers),

( p ) is the probability of success on a single trial (30% or 0.3),

( (1-p) ) is the probability of failure on a single trial (70% or 0.7).

Let's calculate each part:

a) Probability of getting more than four correct answers

This means getting either 5 or 6 correct answers.

For 5 correct answers:

[ P(X = 5) = \binom{6}{5} \cdot (0.3)^5 \cdot (0.7)^1 ]

For 6 correct answers:

[ P(X = 6) = \binom{6}{6} \cdot (0.3)^6 \cdot (0.7)^0 ]

The total probability of getting more than four correct answers is the sum of these two probabilities:

[ P(X > 4) = P(X = 5) + P(X = 6) ]

b) Probability of getting at least two correct answers

This means getting 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 correct answers.

We can calculate the probabilities for each of these cases and sum them up, but it's easier to calculate the probability of getting 0 or 1 correct answers and subtract that from 1.

[ P(X \geq 2) = 1 - [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)] ]

c) Probability of getting at most three correct answers

This means getting 0, 1, 2, or 3 correct answers.

We sum the probabilities of these four cases:

[ P(X \leq 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) ]

d) Probability of getting less than five correct answers

This is very similar to part a), but we want the probability of 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 correct answers.

[ P(X < 5) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) ]

Now, let's calculate each of these probabilities using the binomial formula. I'll start with part a):

For 5 correct answers:

[ P(X = 5) = \binom{6}{5} \cdot (0.3)^5 \cdot (0.7)^1 = 6 \cdot (0.3)^5 \cdot (0.7) ]

For 6 correct answers:

[ P(X = 6) = \binom{6}{6} \cdot (0.3)^6 \cdot (0.7)^0 = 1 \cdot (0.3)^6 ]

Add the two probabilities together to get ( P(X > 4) ).

You can follow these steps using the binomial formula to calculate the probabilities for parts b), c), and d). If you have a calculator or software that can calculate binomial probabilities, this will be quicker. Otherwise, you can calculate each term manually and sum them up as needed.

User Ace Dimasuhid
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To find the probability of getting more than four correct answers, subtract the probability of getting exactly four correct answers from 1.

To find the probability of getting at least two correct answers, consider the complementary event of getting fewer than two correct answers.

To find the probability of getting at most three correct answers, consider the complementary event of getting more than three correct answers.

To find the probability of getting less than five correct answers, sum the probabilities of getting zero, one, two, three, and four correct answers.

To find the probability of getting more than four correct answers, we need to find the probability of getting exactly four correct answers and subtract it from 1.

The probability of getting exactly four correct answers is given by multiplying the probability of getting a correct answer (0.3) by the probability of getting an incorrect answer (0.7) for the remaining two questions.

So, the probability of getting four correct answers is 0.3 x 0.3 x 0.7 x 0.7 = 0.0441. Therefore, the probability of getting more than four correct answers is 1 - 0.0441 = 0.9559, or 95.59%.

To find the probability of getting at least two correct answers, we can consider the complementary event of getting fewer than two correct answers.

The probability of getting exactly zero correct answers is given by multiplying the probability of getting an incorrect answer (0.7) by itself for all six questions.

So, the probability of getting zero correct answers is 0.7^6 = 0.1176. Therefore, the probability of getting at least two correct answers is 1 - 0.1176 = 0.8824, or 88.24%.

To find the probability of getting at most three correct answers, we can consider the complementary event of getting more than three correct answers.

We already calculated the probability of getting more than four correct answers, which is 0.9559.

To find the probability of getting exactly three correct answers, we can use the binomial probability formula.

The probability of getting three correct answers is given by combining the number of ways to choose three questions out of six (6 choose 3) and the probability of getting a correct answer (0.3) raised to the power of three, multiplied by the probability of getting an incorrect answer (0.7) raised to the power of three.

So, the probability of getting three correct answers is (6 choose 3) x 0.3^3 x 0.7^3 = 0.3087.

Therefore, the probability of getting at most three correct answers is 0.9559 + 0.3087 = 1.2646, or 126.46%.

To find the probability of getting less than five correct answers, we can use the probability of getting exactly zero, one, two, three, or four correct answers, which we already calculated.

The probability of getting zero correct answers is 0.1176, the probability of getting one correct answer is (6 choose 1) x 0.3^1 x 0.7^5 = 0.3025, the probability of getting two correct answers is (6 choose 2) x 0.3^2 x 0.7^4 = 0.3241, the probability of getting three correct answers is (6 choose 3) x 0.3^3 x 0.7^3 = 0.3087, and the probability of getting four correct answers is (6 choose 4) x 0.3^4 x 0.7^2 = 0.1852.

Therefore, the probability of getting less than five correct answers is 0.1176 + 0.3025 + 0.3241 + 0.3087 + 0.1852 = 1.2381, or 123.81%.

User WoogieNoogie
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