Final answer:
The expected return on this investment is 3.6%.
Step-by-step explanation:
To find the expected return on this investment, we multiply each possible return by its corresponding probability and then sum them up.
In this case, the possible returns are 4%, 9%, and -2%, with probabilities of 20%, 40%, and 40% respectively.
So, the expected return can be calculated as:
(4% * 20%) + (9% * 40%) + (-2% * 40%) = 0.8% + 3.6% - 0.8% = 3.6%
Therefore, the expected return on this investment is 3.6%.