Final answer:
Enter into a long position on Mexican peso futures contracts if you expect the spot price to rise. Calculate anticipated profits based on the difference between future contract price and expected spot price for the quantity of pesos per contract. If futures price is an unbiased predictor, no profit or loss would occur if the expected spot price materializes.
Step-by-step explanation:
If you believe the spot price in June will be $0.05819 per MXN and the current futures contract price is $0.05179 per MXN, you should enter into a long position on the Mexican peso futures contracts. This means you will commit to buying the currency at the current futures price with the expectation that the spot price will be higher at the time of contract expiration.
Your anticipated profit per contract would be the difference between the spot price you expect ($0.05819) and the futures contract price ($0.05179). For three contracts, assuming each contract is for say 500,000 MXN, the calculation is as follows:
- Anticipated spot value = 500,000 MXN * $0.05819
- Futures contract cost = 500,000 MXN * $0.05179
- Anticipated profit per contract = Anticipated spot value - Futures contract cost
- Total anticipated profit = Anticipated profit per contract * 3 contracts
To calculate the exact number, use the numbers provided in these steps:
- Calculate anticipated profit per contract: (500,000 * $0.05819) - (500,000 * $0.05179)
- Multiply the profit per contract by 3 for the total anticipated profit.
If the futures price is an unbiased predictor of the future spot price, then the expected spot price would be equal to the futures price, and no profit or loss would occur from the speculative position. However, with the specified numbers, assuming 500,000 MXN per contract, your profit or loss can be calculated using the same steps as above but using the futures price in place of the anticipated spot price.