Final answer:
If the Earth's solar heat budget is not in balance, the Earth's temperature could either increase or decrease, depending on whether there is a surplus or deficit of incoming energy. This imbalance can lead to climate change, with various factors influencing Earth's temperature, including greenhouse gases, solar radiation, and surface reflectivity. The solar cycle influences the climate but does not significantly change global temperatures on its own. Option number 2 is correct.
Step-by-step explanation:
If the solar heat budget on the Earth does not balance the Earth's average temperature, the likely outcome is that Earth's temperature will increase if there is a surplus of incoming energy, or Earth's temperature will decrease if there is a deficit. This energy balance is crucial for maintaining the relatively constant temperature that supports life on our planet. The greenhouse effect also plays a role, trapping heat and contributing to an elevated surface temperature. Changes in factors such as solar radiation, greenhouse gases, and Earth's surface reflectivity can disrupt this balance and lead to climate change.
The average temperature of Earth is determined by the balance between the incoming solar radiation and the outgoing infrared radiation. Shifts in this balance can lead to global warming or cooling trends over time. It's important to note that while the solar activity varies slightly during a solar cycle, this variation is not sufficient to explain significant changes in global temperature. However, the solar cycle can influence climate in other ways, such as affecting the upper atmosphere's chemistry and temperature, which may influence weather patterns and regional climate phenomena.