Question

Suppose the probability of an outcome is .02. Which of the following statements represent correct interpretations of this probability? (Choose the best answer.)

1)The outcome is expected to happen about two times out of every 100 trials.
2)The outcome will never happen.
3)The outcome could happen, or it couldn't, the chances of either result are the same.
4)The outcome will certainly happen two times out of every 100 trials.

Answer 1

The statement that best represents the correct interpretation of a probability of .02 is that the outcome is expected to happen about two times out of every 100 trials. This statement aligns with how probability indicates expected outcomes over a large number of trials, as defined by the law of large numbers.

Step-by-step explanation:

If we have a probability of an outcome being .02, it represents the likelihood of an event occurring. According to the principles of probability, the correct interpretation for a probability of .02 is that:

1. The outcome is expected to happen about two times out of every 100 trials.

This statement is the most accurate because probability provides information about what we can expect in the long term, but it does not guarantee exact results in every set of 100 trials. The other statements listed either imply certainty, equal likelihood with an opposite event, or state the outcome will never happen, all of which are incorrect interpretations of probability.

Probability does not predict exact short-term results for an event. Instead, it indicates what we can expect to happen over many repetitions, as defined by the law of large numbers.