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A new engineer is evaluating whether to use a higher voltage transmission line. It will cost $250,000 more initially, but it will reduce transmission losses. The optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic projections for annual savings are $20,000, $15,000, and $8,000. Interest rate is 6% and the transmission line has a life of 30 years.

(a) What is the present worth (of cost and benefits) for each estimated value?
(b) Use the range of estimates to compute the mean annual savings, and then determine the present worth.
(c) Would you recommend the higher voltage line? Give both economic and noneconomic reasons.

User Karakuri
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Final answer:

The present worth of the cost and benefits can be calculated using net present value (NPV). The higher voltage line is not recommended due to negative present worth. Consider both economic and non-economic factors before making a decision.

Step-by-step explanation:

To determine the present worth of the cost and benefits for each estimated value, we can use the concept of net present value (NPV). NPV takes into account the time value of money by discounting future cash flows to their present value. The NPV is calculated as follows: NPV = Benefits - Initial Cost / (1+interest rate)^year. For the optimistic projection, the present worth would be $20,000 - $250,000 / (1+0.06)^0 = -$250,000. For the most likely projection, the present worth would be $15,000 - $250,000 / (1+0.06)^0 = -$250,000. For the pessimistic projection, the present worth would be $8,000 - $250,000 / (1+0.06)^0 = -$250,000.

To calculate the mean annual savings, we can take the average of the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic projections. Mean annual savings = ($20,000 + $15,000 + $8,000) / 3 = $14,333.33. To determine the present worth using the range of estimates, we can use the same NPV formula but with the mean annual savings. Present worth = $14,333.33 - $250,000 / (1+0.06)^0 = -$250,000.

Now, let's consider the recommendation. From an economic perspective, the present worth for all estimated values and the range of estimates is negative, indicating that the higher voltage line is not financially beneficial. The initial cost outweighs the potential savings. From a non-economic perspective, factors such as safety regulations, environmental impacts, and future scalability should also be considered. It is recommended to consult with experts and conduct a thorough analysis before making a final decision.

User Karol Pisarzewski
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