Final answer:
To predict the number of job requests for week 6: employ the naïve method using week 5's requests (39), calculate a four-week moving average (38.25 after rounding), or apply exponential smoothing, which requires past forecast data not provided here.
Step-by-step explanation:
The question provided is about predicting the number of job requests an electrical contractor's records show for week 6 using different forecasting methods.
a. Naïve Method: For the naïve forecast, the prediction for the next period is equal to the actual value of the current period. Therefore, the number of requests for week 6 is predicted to be 39, which is the same as week 5.
b. Four-Week Moving Average: To calculate a four-week moving average, we average the number of requests from the most recent four weeks:
(36 + 39 + 39 + 39) / 4 = 153 / 4 = 38.25
After rounding to two decimal places, the predicted number of requests for week 6 is 38.25.
c. Exponential Smoothing with α = 0.20: Exponential smoothing requires us to apply the smoothing constant α to the most recent period's actual value, and (1 - α) to the most recent period's forecast. Assuming F2 is 36 and using α = 0.20, the forecast for week 3 (F3) would be:
F3 = α × Actual2 + (1 - α) × F2
F3 = 0.20 × 39 + 0.80 × 36 = 7.8 + 28.8 = 36.6
Continuing this calculation by using F3 to find F4, then F4 to find F5, and finally using F5 to predict F6, we would obtain the exponential smoothing prediction for week 6 (F6).
Since the exercise provided doesn't offer complete past forecasts (F2, F3, etc.), an exact number for F6 cannot be given without additional information.