Final answer:
State election outcomes are primarily influenced by party identification and incumbency. Party loyalty guides approximately half of the voters, while the advantages of incumbency include greater name recognition and support. Voter demographics and turnout also play critical roles in election results.
Step-by-step explanation:
The two factors that often dominate election outcomes in state elections are the party identification of voters and the influence of incumbents. Party identification plays a significant role because about 50 percent of voters tend to base their decisions on party allegiance, focusing campaigns on winning over independents and states with close margins. Additionally, incumbents benefit from name recognition, media coverage, voting records, and support from political action committees, which contributes to an incumbency advantage where they are often reelected.
Several influence factors can be used to predict who is likely to vote, such as age, education, and income, which campaigns target strategically. The U.S. election system, such as winner-take-all elections and election rules, strongly favors a two-party system, making it challenging for third-party candidates to win seats. The voter turnout and demographics, such as ethnicity and age, can greatly affect the election outcome especially in hotly contested elections.