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The number of years that a radio functions is an exponential random variable with an average value of 8.

(a) If you buy a radio today, what is the probability that it will be functioning 10 years from now?
(b) If it is still functioning two years from now, what is the conditional probability that it lasts at least an additional 7 years?

a) (a) 0.1175; (b) 0.75
b) (a) 0.75; (b) 0.1175
c) (a) 0.8825; (b) 0.25
d) (a) 0.25; (b) 0.8825

User Thu
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1 Answer

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Final answer:

The probability that a radio functions for more than 10 years is e^(-10/8), and the conditional probability, given it has lasted 2 years, for it to last at least another 7 years is e^(-7/8), with the rates obtained using the provided mean of 8 years. None of the options provided in the question are correct.

Step-by-step explanation:

If we denote the lifetime of the radio as X, which is an exponential random variable, the expected value (mean) E(X) is given as 8 years. The rate parameter λ of the exponential distribution can be calculated using the formula λ = 1/mean, so λ = 1/8.

For part (a), the probability that a radio will be functioning 10 years from now is P(X > 10), which we calculate using the exponential distribution formula P(X > x) = e-λx. Plugging in the values λ = 1/8 and x = 10, we get:

P(X > 10) = e-(1/8)10 ≈ 0.1353, not in the options provided so none of the options are correct.

For part (b), the conditional probability that the radio lasts at least an additional 7 years given that it has already lasted 2 years is P(X > 9 | X > 2). We use the memoryless property of the exponential distribution to calculate this, which gives us P(X > 7) because the additional 2 years do not impact the remaining time. Thus:

P(X > 9 | X > 2) = P(X > 7) = e-(1/8)7 ≈ 0.4724, not in the options provided so none of the options are correct.

It seems that there was a possible miscalculation in the original question options, as they do not match the calculations based on the provided average value of 8 years for an exponential distribution.

User Joel Murphy
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