Question

An oil exploration company currently has two active projects, one in Asia and the other in Europe. Let A be the event that the Asian project is successful and B be the event that the European project is successful. Suppose that A and B are independent events with P(A) = 0.5 and P(B) = 0.3. (a) If the Asian project is not successful, what is the probability that the European project is also not successful? Explain your reasoning. Since the events are independent, then A′ and B′ are not independent. Since the events are independent, then A′ and B′ are independent. Since the events are not independent, then A′ and B′ are mutually exclusive. Since the events are independent, then A′ and B′ are mutually exclusive. (b) What is the probability that at least one of the two projects will be successful? (c) Given that at least one of the two projects is successful, what is the probability that only the Asian project is successful? (Round your answer to three decimal places.)

Answer 1

0.7 ; 0.65 ; 0.115

Explanation:

Explanation:

P(A) = 0.5 ; P(B) = 0.3

P(not successful) = P(B') = 1 - 0.3 = 0.7 ; P(A') = 1 - 0.5 = 0.5

1.)

Both events are independent events, hence the outcome of one does not depend on the other. That is the failure of the Asian project has nothing to do with the European project.

Probability that European project isn't successful;

P(B') = 1 - P(B) = 1 - 0.3 = 0.7

2.)

Probability that atleast one of the 2 projects is successful :

P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AnB)

P(AnB) = P(A) * P(B) = 0.5 * 0.3 = 0.15

P(AUB) = 0.5 + 0.3 - 0.15 = 0.65

3.)

Probability that only the Asian project is successful, given that atleast one of the two projects is successful :

[P(A) - P(AnB)] ÷ P(AuB)

[0.5 * 0.15] ÷ 0.65

= 0.075 ÷ 0.65

= 0.1153846

= 0.115