Question

Before an election, a scientific poll conducted amongst voters found that Candidate A has 53% and Candidate B 47%. The poll has a margin of error of ±4%.

a) Can you conclude Candidate A will be the winner given the poll result?
A. Yes, Candidate A will definitely win.
B. No, the margin of error allows for uncertainty in the result.
C. Yes, with a high probability, Candidate A will win.
D. No, the margin of error does not affect the result.

Answer 1

No, we cannot conclude that Candidate A will win because the margin of error introduces a possibility that Candidate B could have more support. The margin of error means that the true percentage of votes for each candidate could be higher or lower than the poll suggests.

Step-by-step explanation:

The question asks whether one can conclude that Candidate A will win the election based on a scientific poll that shows them leading with 53%, given a margin of error of ±4%. The correct answer to this is B. No, the margin of error allows for uncertainty in the result. The margin of error indicates that the true support for Candidate A could range from 49% to 57%, and for Candidate B from 43% to 51%. Therefore, it's possible for Candidate B to actually receive more support than Candidate A despite the poll's initial findings.

Margin of error is crucial in interpreting polls because it provides a range that reflects potential sampling errors. For instance, a poll with an 8 percent margin of error means that the results could be off by that amount in either direction. A smaller margin of error generally indicates higher confidence in the results. In election scenarios, understanding the margin of error is essential to avoid overconfidence in the poll outcomes and premature predictions about who will win.