92.8k views
1 vote
Bayes Formula

In a certain​ year, the probability that a stock was in the Information Technology sector was 0.1233. The probability that the stock had a dividend yield of​ 2.00% or higher given that it was in the Information Technology sector was 0.2842. The probability that a stock had a dividend yield of​ 2.00% or higher given that it was not in the Information Technology sector was 0.4464. Find the probability that the stock was in the Information Technology sector given that it had a dividend yield of​ 2.00% or higher.

1 Answer

6 votes

Answer:

the probability that the stock was in the Information Technology sector given that it had a dividend yield of 2.00% or higher is approximately 0.0698 or 6.98%.

Explanation:

To find the probability that the stock was in the Information Technology (IT) sector given that it had a dividend yield of 2.00% or higher, we can use Bayes' theorem.

Let's define the following events:

A: Stock is in the IT sector.

B: Stock has a dividend yield of 2.00% or higher.

We are given the following probabilities:

P(A) = 0.1233 (Probability of stock being in the IT sector)

P(B|A) = 0.2842 (Probability of stock having a dividend yield of 2.00% or higher, given that it is in the IT sector)

P(B|not A) = 0.4464 (Probability of stock having a dividend yield of 2.00% or higher, given that it is not in the IT sector)

We want to find P(A|B), the probability of the stock being in the IT sector given that it has a dividend yield of 2.00% or higher.

According to Bayes' theorem:

P(A|B) = (P(B|A) * P(A)) / P(B)

To find P(B), we can use the law of total probability:

P(B) = P(B|A) * P(A) + P(B|not A) * P(not A)

P(not A) = 1 - P(A) = 1 - 0.1233 = 0.8767 (Probability of stock not being in the IT sector)

Let's calculate P(B):

P(B) = P(B|A) * P(A) + P(B|not A) * P(not A)

= 0.2842 * 0.1233 + 0.4464 * 0.8767

≈ 0.1076 + 0.3927

≈ 0.5003

Now, we can calculate P(A|B) using Bayes' theorem:

P(A|B) = (P(B|A) * P(A)) / P(B)

= (0.2842 * 0.1233) / 0.5003

≈ 0.0349 / 0.5003

≈ 0.0698

Therefore, the probability that the stock was in the Information Technology sector given that it had a dividend yield of 2.00% or higher is approximately 0.0698 or 6.98%.

User Bedi Egilmez
by
8.0k points