Question

A gambler knows that red and black are equally likely to occur on each spin of a roulette wheel. He observes that 5 consecutive reds have occurred and bets heavily on black at the next spin. Asked why, he explains that "black is due."

Is the gambler's reasoning correct or incorrect? Justify your answer.

He is correct. If black and red are equally likely to occur, the wheel is due to land on black in order to even out the proportion of times it has landed on red.

He is incorrect. If 5 reds occurred in a row, then reds are more likely to occur than black so he should always bet on red.

He is incorrect. The wheel is not affected by its past outcomes - it has no memory. So on any one spin, black and red remain equally likely.

He is incorrect. There is also green on the roulette wheel, which hasn't come up in the last S spins, so green is due as well.

He is correct. Because 5 reds occurred in a row there will be a streak of 5 blacks in a row next to balance out the outcomes.

Answer 1

He is incorrect. The wheel is not affected by its past outcomes - it has no memory. So on any one spin, black and red remain equally likely.

Explanation:

The above statement is what is likely the correct answer, but my personal opinion, is that he would be correct because 5 in a row red is still very unlikely, but i believe the correct answer is that is is not affected by past outcomes