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A new medical test for a serious disease is 98% accurate; however, the disease is so rare that only 1 in 1,000 people

actually have the disease.
If a patient tests positive for this disease, should the patient start treatment right away?

User TunaFFish
by
7.6k points

1 Answer

5 votes

Final answer:

The patient should consult a healthcare professional to make an informed decision about starting treatment given the accuracy and rarity of the disease.


Step-by-step explanation:

The question is asking whether a patient should start treatment right away if they test positive for a disease in a medical test that is 98% accurate. Given that the disease is very rare (only 1 in 1,000 people actually have it), the accuracy of the test becomes important to consider.

If the patient tests positive, the probability of them actually having the disease can be calculated using Bayes' theorem. In this case, the positive predictive value (PPV) of the test is a crucial factor in determining the likelihood of the patient having the disease.

In this scenario, even though the test is 98% accurate, the PPV may still be relatively low due to the rarity of the disease. It is important for the patient to consult with a healthcare professional who can provide them with a comprehensive understanding of their individual situation and guide them in making an informed decision about starting treatment.


Learn more about Medical test accuracy

User SWalters
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