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The weather forecast says that the probability of it being cloudy tomorrow is 30%, the probability of it being rainy is 15%, and the probability of it being both cloudy and rainy is 14%. What is the probability of it being rainy, if you know it will be cloudy?

a. about 46.67%
b. about 4.5%
c. about 93.9%
d. about 21.43%

1 Answer

2 votes

a. 46.67%

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Use the formula for conditional probability:

  • P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B)

From the given information, the probability of it being cloudy is 30% (0.3), and the probability of it being both cloudy and rainy is 14% (0.14).

Plugging these values into the formula:

  • P(rainy|cloudy) = 0.14 / 0.3 ≈ 0.4667

Therefore, the probability of it being rainy, given that it will be cloudy, is approximately 46.67%.

User Adrian Colomitchi
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