Question

Do you think more people die from shark attacks or from falling airplane parts? You might be surprised to learn that you are 30 times more likely to die from a falling airplane part than from a shark attack. Using what you have learned about the availability heuristic, why do you think this is so?

You are the campaign manager for Ima Winner, who is running for mayor in your hometown. Using the availability heuristic, what are two things you can do to increase Ima’s chances of winning the election?

Answer 1

1. The availability heuristic is a cognitive bias that describes the tendency for people to rely on easily accessible or vivid examples when making judgments or decisions. In this case, people may be more likely to fear and remember shark attacks because they are sensationalized in the media and portrayed in movies and television shows. Falling airplane parts, on the other hand, are less commonly reported and may be less memorable because they are less frequent and less visually striking.

As a result, people may overestimate the risk of shark attacks and underestimate the risk of falling airplane parts because they are more readily available in their minds. This can lead to a distorted perception of risk and may result in unnecessary anxiety or irrational decision-making. It is important to consider all relevant information and statistics when making judgments about risk and to avoid relying solely on vivid or easily available examples.

2. If we were to apply the availability heuristic to political campaigning, two things a campaign manager could do to increase a candidate's chances of winning the election are:

• Increase the visibility of the candidate: The availability heuristic suggests that people tend to rely on easily accessible or vivid examples when making decisions. In the context of a political campaign, this means that a candidate who is more visible and prominent in the community may be more likely to be top-of-mind for voters when it comes time to cast their ballots. A campaign manager could work to increase the candidate's visibility by organizing events, attending community meetings, and engaging with local media.
• Highlight the candidate's accomplishments and experience: Another way to leverage the availability heuristic in a political campaign is to emphasize the candidate's past accomplishments and experience. People may be more likely to vote for someone they perceive as competent and experienced, as this type of information is more easily accessible in their minds. A campaign manager could highlight the candidate's track record of success and emphasize their relevant experience in order to increase their perceived competence and credibility.