Answer:
Turning Chechnya’s Precarious Stability into Peace
Crisis Group’s Russia & North Caucasus Project Director Ekaterina Sokirianskaia discusses the key findings our recently released report, Chechnya: The Inner Abroad, and the future potential for violence that stems from the precarious and asymmetrical relationship between Russia and its small border republic.
Step-by-step explanation:
Crisis Group: Do you think it is possible that anything will change in Chechnya, or that Chechnya could become more democratic, as long as Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is in office and Russia discourages any democratic change in Chechnya?
Ekaterina Sokirianskaia: It is true that the relationship between Kadyrov and Russian President Vladimir Putin is the key element of the current situation in Chechnya, and that democratisation of Russia is part of the solution of the Chechen conflict. Chechnya is an absolute exception to the rules of the Russian Federation, yet, paradoxically, it also reflects many of Russia’s problems.
Still, change is possible, even with Kadyrov and Putin in power. When it comes to ideology, Vladimir Putin has proved to be a flexible, pragmatic leader. If he feels that democratisation and normalisation of Chechnya will benefit him, he can make that change and achieve significant progress. The Russian government has strong mechanisms available to ensure improvement in Chechnya’s quality of governance, political pluralism and human security. The Chechen leader is deeply dependent on Moscow and is likely to comply with a carefully designed and systematically enforced strategy. Actually, Putin and Kadyrov may be the only ones who can make a transformation work without bloodshed. If change comes after or without them, the process will be more prone to violence.
At the same time, while Crisis Group’s recommendations in the new report are addressed to the current leaderships, we would like this report to contribute to a broader debate in Russia, especially among North Caucasus experts, and those in the Russian establishment who want a more sustainable peace in Chechnya.
How long do you think the current status quo can continue? How big is the actual danger of a violent escalation – in this political setting or in an eventually changed political landscape?
The current model can work only as long as the status quo continues in both the Kremlin and Grozny. If anything changes in either capital, the system is likely to undergo significant transformation that may lead to its collapse. That would almost certainly be followed by violence inside Chechen society – blood feuds are likely to come out of the deep freeze, certain categories of people in power will feel threatened and will try to either flee or find new ways to perpetuate their untouchable status. If under new conditions the elites in Grozny and Moscow cannot reach a consensus, and that will be hard, another full-scale confrontation between them will become a very likely scenario.
Is there any significant opposition to Ramzan Kadyrov in Chechnya?
For the time being, Kadyrov enjoys absolute power in the republic and there is no visible opposition. But if the status quo changes and he loses part of his support from Moscow, serious challenges will come from multiple sources: internal competitors and enemies; people who are strongly opposed to his style of government in Chechnya; nationalist opposition abroad; the Islamist insurgency; and powerful opponents among the Russian security services.
The Crisis Group report says Ramzan Kadyrov’s regime amounts to a personality cult. What purpose does it serve?
The personality cult has a key function because the Chechen conflict has never been resolved. The current leadership was not chosen in free and fair elections, but installed after a political process characterised by open conflict, intimidation and reported mass fraud. There is still strong if quiet dissent among many Chechens at home and abroad, as well as unhealed wounds from the two wars. Kadyrov depends on this constructed positive image to justify, consolidate and legitimise his almost absolute power in the republic.
How do Chechnya’s politics impact daily life and private conversations?
The climate of fear is omnipresent. People are extremely scared of speaking about their problems and prefer not to discuss politics, even with their relatives. During interviews, respondents turned off their phones, insisted on anonymity and allowed no voice recording. Human rights organisations say people fear to report violations. Their pursuit of legal remedies might not only be futile, but they might also face reprisals.