Final answer:
The question deals with the theoretical probability of Siobhan guessing the correct month that Andrew wrote down. The probability is 1/12, as there are 12 possible months and one correct guess.
Step-by-step explanation:
The question relates to the concept of probability, a fundamental aspect of mathematics that quantifies the likelihood of events. Specifically, it falls under theoretical probability, which is used when all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely. In the example provided, to find the probability that Siobhan guesses the correct month, Andrew needs to know the total number of possible outcomes, which is 12 since there are 12 months in a year.
The probability that Siobhan guesses correctly is therefore 1/12, as there is only one correct month and 12 possible months she could guess. This calculation is based on the principle that the probability of an event A is the number of outcomes in A divided by the total number of outcomes in the sample space.
It's essential to understand that while this theoretical probability provides us with what we can expect in the long term, it does not guarantee short-term outcomes. For instance, even if Siobhan were to guess the month multiple times, each guess is an independent event with a 1/12 probability, without being influenced by previous guesses. This demonstrates the law of large numbers, as mentioned with Karl Pearson's coin toss experiment.