Question

You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. without water the plant will die with probability 0.8. with water it will die with probability 0.5. you are 80 % certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant. you come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. what is the probability that the plant died because neighbor forgot to water it?

Answer 1

the correct answer should be 20% because u were 80% certain he would remember so that means ur 20% certain he would forget