Well 30 minutes in every two hour block occurs 6 times a day, therefore the 15 minutes he wants to pick his donuts up in occurs 6 times a day as well. So he has the probability of picking up his donuts fresh is 1:8. This is because for the 12 hours he has a total of 1.5 hours, 15 minutes x 6 occurrences, to pick up his donuts.