Question

A company is about to launch a new cell phone model. In the past, 40% of its cell phones have launched successfully. Before any cell phone is launched, the company conducts market research and receives a report predicting favorable or unfavorable sales. In the past, 70% of successful cell phones and 20% of unsuccessful cell phones received favorable reports. What is the probability that the new cell phone will receive a favorable report, given that the cell phone launch is successful?

Answer 1

There is a 70% chance that te phone will receive a favorable report.

Answer 2

The required probability is 0.70.

Explanation:

Let A represents the event of launching successfully, B represents the event of receiving favourable reports,

Given,

Probability of successful launching,

`P(A)=40\%=(40)/(100)=0.40`

Also, 70% of successful cell phones are received favorable reports.

`\implies P(A\cap B)=70\%\text{ of P(A)}=(70* 0.40)/(100)=0.28`

Thus, by the conditional property,

The probability that the new cell phone will receive a favorable report, given that the cell phone launch is successful,

`P((B)/(A))=(P(A\cap B))/(P(A))=(0.28)/(0.40)=0.70`