The most likely event to occur would be events I and II. Without the unifying force provided by a hegemonic empire, the various ethnic groups will coalesce and isolate themselves from other ethnic groups, due to the presumed various ethnic and cultural differences. This will likely result in the formation of nation-states that are homogeneous in ethnicity. Furthermore, without the overarching authority of the empire to regulate resource distribution, these ethnic nation-states will compete and inevitably conflict over resource-rich areas in order to sustain regional economies and overall standards of living.