Question

An airline’s weekly flight data showed a 98% probability of being on time. If this airline has 15,000 flights in a year, how many flights would you predict to arrive on time? Explain whether you can use the data to predict whether a specific flight with this airline will be on time.

first answer gets some points

Answer 1

If there are 15,000 flights, and there is 98% chance of being on time, then 14,700 of the flights will be on time. However, you can't use the data to tell whether a specific flight will be on time, as in the end, a probability is just a probability and not a guarantee. This means if the first 300 flights of an airline is late, that doesn't mean that there is a 100% chance of the rest of the flights being on time, but there is likely just going to be a higher chance of an ontime flight.