Final answer:
Your campaign manager is likely advising you to avoid discussing Social Security reform because it is a controversial issue that can lead to significant political fallout, as seen in the pushback against President George W. Bush's reform attempts. The program's strong support base makes it risky to propose substantial changes.
Step-by-step explanation:
Your campaign manager advises avoiding the topic of Social Security reform during your presidential campaign because it is known as the 'third rail of politics,' a topic that is highly controversial and could be politically detrimental to touch. The phrase indicates the potentially severe political consequences a candidate faces when proposing changes to a program that is deeply entrenched and popular among many voters, especially seniors.
In the history of presidential campaigns, attempts to reform Social Security have often been met with strong opposition. For example, President George W. Bush's efforts to privatize Social Security by introducing personal savings accounts was met with pushback from Democrats, labor organizations, AARP, and policy experts. This controversy was further amplified by media scrutiny that challenged and critiqued the president’s claims and suggested that his proposals might serve special interests like Wall Street financiers.
Given that Social Security is a widely treasured program with a powerful support base, any proposals for substantial change are likely to be met with skepticism and defensive opposition, which can render such discussions politically hazardous for a candidate.