Question

Suppose an opinion poll predicted that, if the election were held today, the Conservative party would win 68% of the vote. If the pollster attached a 95% confidence level to the interval 68% plus or minus 4%, what would that mean?

Answer 1

The correct answer is:

We can be 95% confident that the true proportion of votes for the Conservative property will fall within 4 points of 68%, or the interval 64% - 72%.

Step-by-step explanation:

The confidence level (95%) tells us the chance that our interval contains the true proportion.

The margin of error (4%) gives us the interval above and below the mean percentage given.

Answer 2

That there is a 95% chance that the Conservative party will win between 64% and 72% of the vote.