The answer is that adjusting to the end of the commodity boom, which benefited South America particularly, has taken longer than expected. Between 2003 and 2010 China’s industrialisation boosted demand for minerals, oil and foodstuffs. Commodity prices fell steadily between 2010 and 2015. As export revenue shrank, the region’s currencies weakened, curbing imports and pushing up inflation.
Latin America also faces a fiscal squeeze. The commodity boom temporarily boosted tax revenues. Too many governments spent, rather than invested or saved, this windfall. The primary fiscal deficit (ie, before interest payments) in the region as a whole increased from 0.2% of GDP in 2013 to 2.6% last year. In other words, public debt is rising. Many governments have started to retrench. Few are in a position to prime the pump of recovery.