Question

Anna is getting married tomorrow, at an outdoor ceremony in the desert. In recent years, it has rained only 5 days each year. Unfortunately, the weatherman has predicted rain for tomorrow. When it actually rains, the weatherman correctly forecasts rain 90% of the time. When it doesn’t rain, he incorrectly forecasts rain 10% of the time. What is the probability that it will rain on the day of Anna’s wedding?

Answer 1

0.012329

Explanation:

Given that Anna is getting married tomorrow, at an outdoor ceremony in the desert. In recent years, it has rained only 5 days each year.

it has rained only 5 days each year. Unfortunately, the weatherman has predicted rain for tomorrow.

Probability for rain on Anna wedding =

Probability that the weatherman forecast is correct and it rains + Prob that he incorrectly forecasts and there is no rain

=
`0.9*5/365\\=0.012329`