Question

Lynn is planning to fly from New York to Los Angeles and will take the Airtight Airlines flight that leaves at 8 A.M. The Web site she used to make her reservations states that the probability that the flight will arrive in Los Angeles on time is 0.70. Of the following, which is the most reasonable explanation for how that probability could have been estimated?(a) By using an extended weather forecast for the date of her flight, which showed a 30% chance of bad weather.(b) By making assumptions about how airplanes work, and factoring all of those assumptions into an equation to arrive at the probability.(c) From the fact that, of all airline flights arriving in California, 70% arrive on time.(d) From the fact that, of all airline flights in the United States, 70% arrive on time.(e) From the fact that, on all previous days this particular flight has been scheduled, it had arrived on time 70% of those days.

Answer 1

The probability of Lynn's flight arriving on time being 0.70 is most reasonably estimated from historical data of the specific flight's on-time arrival rate.

Step-by-step explanation:

The most reasonable explanation for how the probability of Lynn's flight arriving on time has been estimated is option (e) which suggests that the probability of 0.70 is based on historical data. Specifically, it's from the fact that, on all previous days this particular flight has been scheduled, it had arrived on time 70% of those times. This method of calculating probability uses empirical data rather than theoretical reasoning or external factors such as weather forecasts or the general performance of all airline flights.

Answer 2

(e) From the fact that, on all previous days this particular flight has been scheduled, it had arrived on time 70% of those days.

Step-by-step explanation:

Hello! The calculation and the estimated percentage is given with the logic of the previous days, if the flight arrived 70% on time, then that's why the company give that advice. The way previously mentioned it is the easiest way to calculate for Lynn and the other passengers who want to know if the flight arrives on time.

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