Question

A TV news reporter says that a proposed constitutional amendment is likely to win approval in the upcoming election because a poll of 1505 likely voters indicated that 52% would vote in favor. The reporter goes on to say that the margin of error for this poll was 3%. a) Explain why the poll is actually inconcluive. b) What confidence level did the pollsters use?

Answer 1

The poll is inconclusive because the margin of error of 3% makes it possible for the actual support to be below the majority, and without knowing the confidence level, the poll's reliability is uncertain, though it is likely conducted at a 95% confidence level.

Step-by-step explanation:

A poll indicating that 52% of likely voters would vote in favor of a constitutional amendment with a 3% margin of error is inconclusive because the margin of error applies in both directions. This means that the actual support could be as low as 49% (just below a majority) or as high as 55%. Without knowing the confidence level, we can't judge how reliable these results are; however, it is common for polls to be conducted with a 95% confidence level. For greater reliability, a lower margin of error or a higher confidence level would be beneficial.

The ±3% sampling error means that there is a 95% probability that the true proportion of the population's opinion lies within 3 percentage points of the reported poll result.

Answer 2

Step-by-step explanation:

A) The poll is inconclusive because the number of people who will vote in favor is 52% it means 48% will vote against. And if there is a 3% error then the election is inconclusive because 52-3 =49% so it would have been 49% voting in favor of the 3%error had gone against them while the others will have 48+3 =51% of the vote for themselves . Due to this the election is inconclusive.

B) the confidence level is 97%