Question

Political polling relies heavily on sampling techniques, which allow us to make inferences about an entire population based on only a portion of the population. However, the "Brexit" referendum in the United Kingdom and several elections in the United States since 2016 have called into question the accuracy of much political polling. In your own words, please address all of the following questions and respond to at least two of your peers' posts: 1. What explains the inaccuracy of many pre-election polling data since 2016? Provide specific case examples. 2. What statistical techniques could be used to improve the accuracy of polling? 3. Has the value of political polling diminished? What is your personal perception of political polling?

Answer 1

The example par excellence is Trump's presidential election which took by surprise the national and state election polling, which had had forecast Hillary Clinton as defeating Donald Trump.

One fact that could explain the inaccuracy of many pre-election data was the wide variety of methodologies being tested and streamed via the media.

Another fact that could affect polls in 2016 was that some demographic voting groups were hard for pollsters to reach.

Also, to hire a well-known polling firm is not necessarily hiring the most accurate polling service.

You should know how firms conduct their polls (online, telephone or robopolls, etc.). Telephone polls have legal restrictions for automated calls to cellphones under several circumstances. This states a reach challenge for telephone and online polls for those key demographic groups which finally decides in ballot boxes.

Polls calculation of bias was commonly estimated without taking into account an average error in the measures. Nowadays, a bias calculation should correlate several surveys, poll firms, and statistical techniques to calculate an average error and an average statistical bias.

Political polling has become more complex and now its complexity determines its value.

It's necessary to remember that political polling main use in a democracy is not to determine who is going to win an election or popularity but to build an equal voice about the public's needs, wants and claims.

Retrieved information from Pew Research Center and The New York Times.