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It is desired to test H0: μ = 55 against H1: μ < 55 using α = 0.10. The population in question is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 20. A random sample of 64 will be drawn from this population. If μ is really equal to 50, what is the probability that the hypothesis test would lead the investigator to commit a Type II error?

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Final answer:

The probability of committing a Type II error in this hypothesis test, given the true mean is μ = 50, is approximately 0.9772.

Step-by-step explanation:

To calculate the probability of committing a Type II error (also known as β or 'beta'), we need to find the probability that the test will fail to reject the null hypothesis H0: μ = 55 when in fact the true mean is μ = 50. In this scenario, the test is left-tailed because the alternative hypothesis is H1: μ < 55.

Given the standard deviation (σ) of 20 and a sample size (n) of 64, we can calculate the standard error of the mean, which is σ/√n = 20/8 = 2.5. To find the z-score that corresponds to α = 0.10, we look up the z-table and find a value of approximately -1.28. This z-score is the cut-off point for our test statistic.

If the true mean is 50, we calculate the z-score using this mean. The z-score for the true mean is (50 - 55)/(2.5) = -2. The probability corresponding to this z-score is the probability of not rejecting H0, which is the probability of a Type II error. We find this probability in the z-table, which corresponds to the area to the right of a z-score of -2. This area is approximately 0.9772.

Hence, the probability of committing a Type II error, given μ is 50, is approximately 0.9772.

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