The factor that does not explain why the median age of the U.S. population will probably increase in coming decades is: An expected rise in immigration.
What does immigration do?
Immigration typically contributes to a younger population demographic, as newcomers are often in younger age brackets.
The other three factors listed—declining fertility, longer life expectancies, and the large baby boom generation reaching old age—are all significant contributors to an increasing median age in the population.
Declining fertility rates mean fewer births, longer life expectancies mean people are living longer