Question

A poll conducted a week before the school election to the student council showed that Janice would win with 63% of the vote. The margin of error was 14%. If Janice needs to receive at least half the votes to win the election, can we be confident of Janice's victory?

Answer 1

OPTIONS:

No, because she could receive as low as 14% of the vote.

No, because she could receive as low as 49% of the vote.

Yes, because she could receive as much as 77% of the vote.

Yes, because the poll stated that she will win with 63% of the vote.

Answer:

No, because she could receive as low as 49% of the vote.

Explanation:

Given that:

Poll suggestion = 63%

Margin of Error (E) = 14%

This means that; the range or interval in which the vote obtained could fall would be ;

Poll suggestion ± margin of Error

63% ± 14%

Lower bound attainable = (63% - 14%) = 49%

Upper bound attainable = (63% + 14%) = 77%

Since, winning actually requires obtaining atleast half of the votes (that is 50%) ; and suggested poll suggested votes could fall as low as 49% ; then Janice can't be so confident of victory.