Question

Probability Calculation: The critical path for a project was found to be 37 days. The variances total 27. What is probability of completing in 43 days

Answer 1

0.1241

Explanation:

Given that:

Critical path = 37 days

Variance total = 27 days

Completion date (x) = 43 days

We obtain the Zscore :

Zscore = (x - critical path) / variance total

Zscore = (43 - 37) / √27

Zscore = 6 / √27

Zscore = 1.1547

Zscore = 1.155

Hence, probability of completing in 43 days :

P(Z > 43) = 1 - P(Z < 43)

P(Z < 43) = 0.8759

P(Z > 43) = 1 - 0.8759 = 0.1241