Question

A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large research project. The firm's management initially felt they had a 50-50 chance of getting the project. However, the agency to which the bid was submitted subsequently requested additional information on the bid. Past experience indicates that for 80% of the successful bids and 35% of the unsuccessful bids the agency requested additional information. a. What is the prior probability of the bid being successful (that is, prior to the request for additional information)

Answer 1

`Probability = 0.50`

Explanation:

Given

`Probability = 50\ 50\ chance`

`Successful\ Bids = 80\%`

`Unsuccessful\ Bids = 35\%`

Required

Determine the probability before the request of past experience

In this case, we only consider the 50 50 chance probability

`Probability = (50)/(50 + 50)`

`Probability = (50)/(100)`

`Probability = 0.50`