Question

According to the simple monetary model, if money is growing at 5% in the United States and 6% in the United Kingdom, while real GDP if rising at 3% in the United States, and at 5% in the United Kingdom. a.What will this do to the exchange rate?b.From your answer in a above, would you increase or decrease your investments in the United Kingdom?c.What would you expect to happen to trade balance of the US? (hint: remember that trade balance = exports –imports)

Answer 1

A)

Since the money supply is growing at a much faster rate than real GDP in the US, this means that the inflation rate in the US will be higher than the inflation rate in the UK. In both countries the money supply is growing at a faster rate, but the difference in the US is larger (money supply is growing 67% faster that real GDP), while the money supply in the UK is growing 20% faster than real GDP.

This means that the US dollar should depreciate against the British pound.

B)

If you have US dollars, then you should increase your investments in the UK because the pound will be worth more US dollars in the future.

C)

More American goods should be exported to the UK, and less British goods should be imported to the US. Since the US dollar should be cheaper, American products are cheaper. The opposite will happen to British products.