Step-by-step explanation:
Recently, some Egyptian scholars have questioned the continuing need for government support of family planning programs. High fertility and population growth, they contend, are no longer serious concerns in Egypt.[1] Notwithstanding President Hosni Mubarak's public expressions of support for family planning policies[2] and recent increases in the government spending for family planning programs, there is evidence of complacency among some policymakers and scholars regarding the need to reduce fertility and population growth rates. For instance, it is widely believed that current engineering projects designed to increase the amount of arable land will relieve the consequences of high population density in the Nile Valley,[3] further reducing the need to reduce birth rates.
One statistic commonly cited as evidence that population growth is no longer a pressing policy concern is the declining fertility rate. Egypt's total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen from 7.2 children per woman in the early 1960s to 3.4 in 1998. United Nations population projections suggest that the TFR in Egypt will decrease to three children in the 2000–2005 period and to two children by 2020–2025.[4]
However, deeper examination of current trends suggests that population growth should still concern Egyptian policymakers. If the fertility declines of recent decades are to be sustained and the government of Egypt is to achieve its goal of reducing fertility to replacement level by 2016,[5] it must support a strong family planning program that can continue to provide high-quality services and reach more potential users. Financing this program will increasingly depend on the Egyptian government's resources.
Using existing demographic research, this paper examines demographic trends and their implications for Egypt. It addresses three questions: