Question

Suppose that an outbreak of cholera follows severe flooding in an isolated town of 6034 people. Initially (Day 0), 76 people are infected. Every day after, 27% of those still healthy fall ill. At the beginning of the first day (Day 1), how many people are still healthy? How many will fall ill during the first day? What is the total number of people infected after the first day?

Answer 1

Given:

Number of population = 6034

Number of people initially infected = 76

Growth rate of infection = 27% = 0.27

Number of healthy people after Day 0:

6034 - 76 = 5958

1) At the beginning of the first day (Day 1), we assume that no new infection has occured.

Therefore, the number of people that are still healthy at the beginning of the first day is the same as the number of healthy people after the initial day.

Therefore, we have:

6034 - 76 = 5958

2) To find the number of people that will fall ill during the first day, we have:

`0.27\text{ }\ast\text{ 5958 = }1608.66`

The number of people that will fall ill during the first day is = 1609

3) Total number of people infected after the first day is:

Number of infections after first day = Number of infections on the initial day + number of infections on day 1

`1609\text{ + }76\text{ =}1685`

1685 people are infected after the first day.

ANSWER:

1) 5958

2) 1609

3) 1685