
1) We were told to find a quartic model, so clearly we can focus on the 4th-degree polynomials.
2) Once we do that, let's test each of the entries and their outputs plugging into x the year:

Note that the first year is 2000, So, P(0) refers to 200, and P(3) refers to 2003.
Since we want to find an estimate for 2010 let's plug into that x=10

So, the answer is the third from top to bottom.