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An individual can win a bouncy ball by guessing under which one of four cups the ball is located. After each guess, if the ball is won, a new ball is placed randomly under one of the four cups. If the ball is not won, then the ball is again placed randomly under one of the four cups. If an individual makes five guesses, what is the probability the individual will win a prize exactly two times?

User Tomascapek
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The probability of winning a bouncy ball exactly two times in five guesses is 0.1324 or about 13.24%.

Step-by-step explanation:

We can do this using the binomial probability formula:

P(X = k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1 - p)^(n - k)

X is the number of successes (i.e., winning the bouncy ball), n is the number of trials (i.e., number of guesses), p is the probability of success (i.e., finding the ball under the cup), and k is the number of successes we're interested in (i.e., 2 in this case).

In this scenario, n = 5 and we need to find p.

To find p, we need to consider each guess separately. For the first guess, the probability of winning is 1/4. If the first guess is incorrect, then the ball is randomly placed under one of the cups again, and the probability of winning on the second guess is also 1/4. Similarly, for the third, fourth, and fifth guesses, the probability of winning is 1/4. So, the overall probability of winning exactly 2 times in 5 guesses is:

P(X = 2) = (5 choose 2) * (1/4)^2 * (3/4)^3

= (10) * (1/16) * (27/64)

= 0.1324

Therefore, the probability of winning a bouncy ball exactly two times in five guesses is 0.1324 or about 13.24%.

User Lloydworth
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