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Use the normal distribution to approximate the following binomial distribution. You claim that 73% of the voters in your district will vote for you. If the district has 350 voters, what is the probability that at least 273 will actually vote for you?

a) 0.9798
b) 0.0207
c) 0.0202
d) 0.0228
e) 0.9772

1 Answer

6 votes

Final answer:

The probability that at least 273 out of 350 voters will vote for a candidate using normal distribution approximation requires calculating the mean and standard deviation of the binomial distribution, converting to a z-score, and using standard normal distribution tables or a calculator to find the corresponding probability.

Step-by-step explanation:

To use the normal distribution to approximate the binomial distribution for the probability that at least 273 out of 350 voters will vote for a candidate, given that 73% of the voters are expected to vote for them, we must first determine the mean (μ) and standard deviation (σ) of the binomial distribution.

The formulas for these are μ = np and σ = √npq, where n is the number of trials, p is the probability of success, and q is the probability of failure (1 - p).

In this case, n = 350 and p = 0.73, so q = 0.27. Therefore, the mean is μ = 350 * 0.73 = 255.5, and the standard deviation is σ = √(350 * 0.73 * 0.27) ≈ 8.6745.

To find the probability of getting at least 273 voters, we convert this to a z-score in a normal distribution:

Z = (X - μ) / σ

Where X is the value we’re interested in. So, Z = (273 - 255.5) / 8.6745 ≈ 2.0173.

Using standard normal distribution tables or calculator, we find the probability to the left of this z-score and subtract it from 1 to get the probability of at least 273 voters.

Therefore, we find the area to the right of the z-score 2.0173, which corresponds to the probability that at least 273 voters will vote for the candidate.

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