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Why did the Gallup group poll predict the 1936 presidential election accurately while the the Digest poll failed it? A) Gallup used a larger sample size

B) Gallup employed more sophisticated statistical methods
C) The Digest poll had a biased sample
D) Gallup had better communication strategies

User Gariepy
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Final answer:

The Gallup group accurately predicted the 1936 presidential election by using more sophisticated statistical methods and ensuring their sample was random and representative, unlike the Literary Digest, which had a biased sample.

Step-by-step explanation:

The Gallup group predicted the 1936 presidential election accurately because Gallup employed more sophisticated statistical methods and did not have a biased sample, unlike the Literary Digest poll. The Digest sent opinion cards to a non-random group of people - those with subscriptions, phone, or car registrations, leading to a skewed and non-representative sample. In contrast, Gallup's methods were more scientifically rigorous, utilizing a random sample that better represented the general population.

Moreover, the accuracy of a poll depends not solely on the sample size but also on the representativeness of the sample. While a larger sample size can reduce the margin of error, it's the randomness and representativeness of the sample that primarily determine the accuracy of the poll's predictions.

User Keisuke KATO
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