Final answer:
The value of a plan is in its ability to reveal errors in execution and to learn from these for future program improvements. It involves critical thought, recognition of risks, and adaptability to ensure successful outcomes and to inform decisions for potential futures.
Step-by-step explanation:
The question focuses on the value of a plan in revealing what went wrong in the pursuit of a desired outcome and in assigning blame for the results obtained. In business and strategic planning, the process often involves experts who have an initial sense of the answer before detailed analysis, which is used to identify potential mistakes and necessitate a closer inspection.
The process of creating a plan includes assessing current actions without a plan, addressing challenges in developing a future roadmap, and considering potential targets for society moving forward.
Plan effectiveness is reflected in asymmetric risk, as illustrated in Figure 20.1, which compares the consequences of following a Plan A, based on disbelief in a threat, and a Plan B, which is aimed at mitigating said threat.
The evaluation of a plan's success is not just about whether the goals were met but also about learning from the outcomes to make program improvements. This understanding often comes from experience and conducting thorough program evaluations.
Furthermore, critical thinking plays an important role in developing successful plans, as underscored by the pitfalls of unconscious assumptions based on recent, anomalous events. Poor design decisions made early can compromise the entire plan, reinforcing the need to adapt strategies based on collected data and future projections.
If a plan does meet resistance or is deemed excessively alarmist, it may be revisited in more dire circumstances to extract insights for a viable future. Hence, planning should be dynamic, adapting to warning signs and responsibly enabling the re-imagination of futures.